HGCA mi Saturday

Volume 7 Issue 50
25 June 2005

UK delivered wheat fa! lls 50p to £2. Feed wheat delivered E Anglia fell £1.50 to £69 for July and 50p lower to £72 for November. Greater falls were seen in the North and West.

EU opens 5Mt of new crop export tenders - 3Mt open market grain and 2Mt of intervention. The Commission tenders open for bidding on 14 July (except oats) and will allow EU grain traders to bid for export refunds to ship grain onto the world market. The level of refund likely to be granted remains unclear at this stage but is likely to be determined by the relative price differential between EU and world grain markets along with political issues. Open market tenders included 2Mt of wheat and 1Mt of barley, intervention tenders included 1.19Mt of wheat, 0.4Mt barley and 0.5Mt rye.

EU opens tenders for the sale of 0.76Mt of maize within the EU. This includes 0.5Mt of maize from Hungary. With new crop maize not available until September and October the Commission were reportedly hoping to benefit from current higher maize prices within the EU to allow the intervention grain to be sold before new crop supplies arri! ve.

EU announce transfer of 0.5Mt intervention grain from to Spain. The EU has authorised the transfer of intervention grain to Spain for storage including 0.2Mt of wheat and 0.1Mt of maize from Hungary, 0.1Mt of Slovak maize and 0.1Mt of Germany barley. No details were given as to when and how this would take place.

US grain prices rise on hot, dry weather, but rains forecast. Maize prices rose $3 to $100/t FOB Gulf, though rain is expected soon. The USDA report that 22% of the winter wheat crop has been harvested with protein levels seen lower in the Hard Red Winter crop.

Australian plantings back on track as further heavy rain falls . Plantings were in full swing with conditions now reported as excellent in many Eastern areas. Expectations have been revised back up to over a 22Mt wheat crop, compared to ABARE estimates as low as 16Mt before the rains.

Summary of the week   HGCA Farm
Event Possible Impact Price effect Income Monitor
Sterling hits 10 month high vs euro UK grain prices under pressure in £ Bearish Monitor impact of spot and forward price movements to aid planting and selling
EU announce 5Mt export tenders Early start to export campaign? Bullish decisions.
EU 1.2Mt internal intervention sales Competition within EU grain market Bearish www.hgca.com
Chinese wheat crop up 5% in 2005 But major deficit to remain Bearish  
Soyabeans in US expect rain Crop conditions to improve? Bearish    
         
         
Markets latest at Friday 05-Jul 05-Nov   MATIF (euro/t) 05-Sep 05-Nov   Currency £1=
LIFFE Wheat (£/t) 63.25 69.10 Wheat 106.00 110.00 Euro 1.5073
change on last -3.05 -0.40 change on last -0.75 +0.25 change UP
  05-Jul 05-Dec   05-Aug 05-Nov  
CBOT Wheat ($/t) 123.99 132.35 OSR 218.00 225.00 US Dollar 1.8226
change on last +3.69 +4.55 change on last -1.25 -2.00 change UP
                   
Dellivered spot prices             £ per tonne
23 June 2005 London Avon Midlands E Anglia Tyneside Liverpool C Scotland
Bread Wheat - - - - - - -
Feed Wheat 68.00 68.50 - 69.00 - 71.50 -
Feed Barley - - - - - - -
Oilseed Rape 136.50 - - 138.50 - 138.50 126.50